February 3, 2020
On February 7th, M. Sc. (Econ.) Julia Niemeläinen will defend her doctoral thesis “Determinants of external imbalances between large economies”. Niemeläinen studies the reasons behind the long-lasting current account imbalances observed over the past decades in large open economies, such as the current account deficit of the United States and the current account surplus of China, as well as the concurrent long-term decline in the world real interest rate.
Niemeläinen contributes to the literature on macroeconomics by exploring the ability of the theoretical macroeconomic models to explain and replicate the observed dynamics in the external sector. Her work emphasizes the importance of demographic developments and social security as drivers of external imbalances. In particular, she shows that, when analysed with a general equilibrium model with an embedded life-cycle structure, population ageing and low social security can explain China’s high saving rate and its persistent current account surplus against the United States.
Julia Niemeläinen works as a Senior Researcher at the Labour Institute for Economic Research.